My Trade Journal

2011-09-22T16:25:00.003+05:30

EOD paints the strangest scenario for nifty futures.

1. double top neat 5170 mark

2. we close at month low

3. we have the single biggest fall since oct'2008

4. we close just at support

5. CCI 3 touch trendline broken

6. divergence on macd

7. divergence on CCI

8. divergence on Histogram

9. divergence on stoch

10. And to top all that, we had a single time frame move where no support was respected whole day... from open to close it was only one direction market....

Other factors are :

dollar terms, we fell over 6% today
INR-USE at 49.25 now... 28 month low... when we touches 50.. its pure sell time...

2011-09-21T11:45:00.002+05:30

Thought LOG

2011-09-20T15:55:00.004+05:30

linkon7: 5048 to 5051 is breakout...
Sep 20 2011, 8:39 AM
linkon7: 5017 to 5014 is break down...
Sep 20 2011, 9:14 AM
linkon7: till trade my old accl bb band on 5 min
Sep 20 2011, 9:14 AM
linkon7: dont see a major move today so back to scalping ffew points
Sep 20 2011, 9:18 AM
linkon7: open is inside h3 and s3... so fade extreame day
Sep 20 2011, 9:18 AM
linkon7: h3 is 5054 s3 is 5029 with bd at 5016 and bo at 5066
Sep 20 2011, 9:22 AM
linkon7: exited 4900 carry over at 32...
Sep 20 2011, 9:23 AM
linkon7: hi
Sep 20 2011, 9:24 AM
linkon7: looks like a running market
Sep 20 2011, 9:24 AM
linkon7: but its just mad covering by shorts of yesterday
Sep 20 2011, 9:25 AM
linkon7: first 15 min high will show the intention of buyers of the market
Sep 20 2011, 9:26 AM
linkon7: its my thought log
Sep 20 2011, 9:26 AM
linkon7: always good to have that
Sep 20 2011, 9:26 AM
linkon7: end of the day i know where i went wrong
Sep 20 2011, 9:27 AM
linkon7: all of us are learning
Sep 20 2011, 9:28 AM
linkon7: retracement to 5063... yesterday's high
Sep 20 2011, 9:28 AM
linkon7: that my buy lvl now
Sep 20 2011, 9:29 AM
linkon7: need to see strength
Sep 20 2011, 9:30 AM
linkon7: we need prof of strength
Sep 20 2011, 9:30 AM
linkon7: normally price reacts at those lvl
Sep 20 2011, 9:31 AM
linkon7: i wont chase this run...
Sep 20 2011, 9:33 AM
linkon7: patience
Sep 20 2011, 9:33 AM
linkon7: wont short it since it is one directional so far
Sep 20 2011, 9:38 AM
linkon7: placed sl at 1902 on sbi
linkon7: yesterday's cash buy @ 1916
Sep 20 2011, 9:41 AM
linkon7: 47 point range so far... and its on 1 direction
Sep 20 2011, 9:44 AM
linkon7: with everyone waiting for retraement... its not coming
Sep 20 2011, 9:57 AM
linkon7: looks like a temp top is made
Sep 20 2011, 9:57 AM
linkon7: all chasers have entered the market
Sep 20 2011, 9:59 AM
linkon7: 5081 will short 5100 call with entry of 5000 call at break of 5090
Sep 20 2011, 9:59 AM
linkon7: bull spread
Sep 20 2011, 10:05 AM
linkon7: plan got scrapped
Sep 20 2011, 10:05 AM
linkon7: 90 broke
Sep 20 2011, 10:09 AM
linkon7: massive premium
Sep 20 2011, 10:10 AM
linkon7: plenty of short squeesed
Sep 20 2011, 10:13 AM
linkon7: 45-50 point move and i didnt capitalise yet
Sep 20 2011, 10:17 AM
linkon7: shorted 5100 call at 79
Sep 20 2011, 10:18 AM
linkon7: trigger buy placed on 5000 call at its hod.. 146
Sep 20 2011, 10:27 AM
linkon7: there are no more agressive buyers left
Sep 20 2011, 10:27 AM
linkon7: not many agressive selelrs even
Sep 20 2011, 10:27 AM
linkon7: so drift expected
Sep 20 2011, 10:27 AM
linkon7: to 5072 lvl
Sep 20 2011, 10:30 AM
Sikandar Mohideen: wat about big pic in30m
Sep 20 2011, 10:31 AM
linkon7: not tracking it today
Sep 20 2011, 10:31 AM
linkon7: going with 5 min BB and 6 tick chart
Sep 20 2011, 10:31 AM
linkon7: since bigger picture is very unclear
Sep 20 2011, 10:31 AM
linkon7: 5130 to 5030 is broader range
Sep 20 2011, 10:32 AM
linkon7: 5102 is buy lvl for 5000 call
Sep 20 2011, 10:33 AM
Sikandar Mohideen: tick with mashi
Sep 20 2011, 10:33 AM
linkon7: yes
Sep 20 2011, 10:33 AM
Sikandar Mohideen: or charts data
Sep 20 2011, 10:33 AM
linkon7: its 5 sec snapshot
Sep 20 2011, 10:33 AM
Sikandar Mohideen: ok
Sep 20 2011, 10:33 AM
linkon7: manshi
Sep 20 2011, 10:35 AM
linkon7: 12 points premium on nf now
Sep 20 2011, 10:35 AM
linkon7: ideal buy lvl now is 5078
Sep 20 2011, 10:36 AM
linkon7: 5093 was 3 tough cs lvl on 15 min
Sep 20 2011, 10:42 AM
linkon7: on day before
Sep 20 2011, 10:43 AM
Sudipta Datta: I shorted at 5083. Do u think I shall exit at 5095 level. Or wait..
Sep 20 2011, 10:45 AM
linkon7: there was no short yet
Sep 20 2011, 10:46 AM
linkon7: sudip@ buy some protection
Sep 20 2011, 10:46 AM
linkon7: preferably short 5100 put and hold
Sep 20 2011, 10:46 AM
linkon7: with 5122 as sl...
Sep 20 2011, 10:47 AM
linkon7: 5122 is when u get rid of nf
Sep 20 2011, 10:49 AM
linkon7: again...its ur chart... ur call
Sep 20 2011, 10:51 AM
linkon7: if 5000 call hits 146
Sep 20 2011, 10:51 AM
linkon7: will short 5100 put
Sep 20 2011, 10:52 AM
linkon7: 5100 straddle short+ 500 call long
Sep 20 2011, 10:53 AM
linkon7: saved by a wisker
Sep 20 2011, 11:05 AM
linkon7: expecting a lot of sl to hit below 87
Sep 20 2011, 11:08 AM
linkon7: placed exit for half qty of 5100 call short at 72
Sep 20 2011, 11:13 AM
linkon7: sikander...@ how r u trading now a days
Sep 20 2011, 11:15 AM
Sikandar Mohideen: very light
Sep 20 2011, 11:16 AM
linkon7: remember that rsi afl u sent me
Sep 20 2011, 11:17 AM
linkon7: been working on that
Sep 20 2011, 11:17 AM
Sikandar Mohideen: my 30m system triggerd just buy but mom still weak
Sep 20 2011, 11:18 AM
linkon7: on EOD we are doing nothing at all
Sep 20 2011, 11:18 AM
linkon7: everyday is different
Sep 20 2011, 11:18 AM
linkon7: one day up next day down... kind of market
Sep 20 2011, 11:20 AM
linkon7: took exit for half qty at 72.60
Sep 20 2011, 11:20 AM
linkon7: now 82.60 sl for the remaining...
Sep 20 2011, 11:21 AM
linkon7: or if i get buy on chart will buy 5000 call
Sep 20 2011, 11:50 AM
linkon7: its flattened out totally
Sep 20 2011, 12:04 PM
linkon7: boring

Sep 20 2011, 2:27 PM
linkon7: missed a good buy after i left
Sep 20 2011, 2:28 PM
linkon7: doubt i would have taken it
Sep 20 2011, 2:28 PM
linkon7: 12.45 pe
Sep 20 2011, 2:31 PM
linkon7: sold 5300 - 4700 pair of next month for 125
Sep 20 2011, 2:31 PM
linkon7: action is : buy 5200 current month if 5170 is broken on closing basis
Sep 20 2011, 2:32 PM
linkon7: buy 4900 put current if we break 4980 on closing basis
Sep 20 2011, 2:32 PM
linkon7: adjust delta
Sep 20 2011, 2:50 PM
linkon7: bot 5000 put this month at 35... sold 4900 put this month at 19.5
Sep 20 2011, 2:50 PM
linkon7: cost 16
Sep 20 2011, 2:50 PM
linkon7: sl for 5000 put at 5155
Sep 20 2011, 2:51 PM
linkon7: tgt 5093-5080

2011-09-19T16:18:00.000+05:30

Negative global cues took their toll on the markets today with both benchmark indices closing with about 1% losses. Primarily, it was capital goods that pulled the indices down and banking and metal also played their part in the negativity. Other sectors that closed with substantial losses include healthcare and FMCG. Consumer durables and auto closed with moderate gains. The Sensex closed at 16745, down 188 points from its previous close, and the Nifty shut shop at 5032, down 52 points. The CNX Midcap index closed with 0.2% loss while the BSE Smallcap index was down 0.02% in today's trade. The market breadth was negative with advances at 626 against declines of 798 on the NSE.

Chart wise
we have a support turned resistance at 5044 and a double bottom support wt divergence on rsi and stoch at 5022.

2011-09-19T15:42:00.000+05:30

2011-09-19T15:33:00.001+05:30

Trades taken today :

4800 put short at 34.. exited 27.05
4900 put long at 52... reversed at 51... exited half at 45.05..carried rest
Nf long at 5045 stopped out at 5042...

Carry over trade from before :
4900 straddle short + 5000 call long.... Jobbed for 4 points on 5000 call...

Thought Log

Sep 19 2011, 9:15 AM
linkon7: 5049 will be trend decider
Sep 19 2011, 9:16 AM
linkon7: 5032 is strong support now
Sep 19 2011, 9:19 AM
linkon7: this 40 points fall has put doubt on many weak bulls mind
Sep 19 2011, 9:19 AM
linkon7: fresh hope to bears
Sep 19 2011, 9:19 AM
linkon7: waiting for reaction neat 5032 mark
Sep 19 2011, 9:23 AM
linkon7: no one is showing any desperation to act.... appears like a balanced market so far
Sep 19 2011, 9:24 AM
linkon7: 5037 broke... reaction low 5034.85... means few break out traders and few sl got taken
Sep 19 2011, 9:25 AM
linkon7: vix shot up
Sep 19 2011, 9:28 AM
linkon7: shorted 4800 put at 34
Sep 19 2011, 9:29 AM
linkon7: defensive long
Sep 19 2011, 9:31 AM
linkon7: stoploss 4980 break on 15 min
Sep 19 2011, 9:33 AM
linkon7: got a buy on FR on 2 min
Sep 19 2011, 9:34 AM
linkon7: 5032 defended very well by the bulls ... well played
Sep 19 2011, 9:36 AM
linkon7: 538 seconds to go for bar close on 15 min
Sep 19 2011, 9:37 AM
linkon7: 22 point range so far
Sep 19 2011, 9:37 AM
linkon7: 2x RE gives me another 44
Sep 19 2011, 9:38 AM
linkon7: expecting intraday range between 5032-5093
Sep 19 2011, 9:41 AM
linkon7: few stops got hit for the shorters in todays market
Sep 19 2011, 9:42 AM
linkon7: 22 point range not challenged on either side
Sep 19 2011, 9:44 AM
linkon7: One group of players must be in doubt now... expected big move either direction
Sep 19 2011, 9:45 AM
linkon7: we now have our support established at low of the day
Sep 19 2011, 9:45 AM
linkon7: re test of 5038 and failure to break 5032..will confirm this
Sep 19 2011, 9:46 AM
linkon7: or if we break 5055
Sep 19 2011, 9:47 AM
linkon7: drop in vix..shows that fear of downside is minimised now...
Sep 19 2011, 9:49 AM
linkon7: now the break out traders are in the long side...
Sep 19 2011, 9:49 AM
linkon7: likely stops will be 5038 to 5032 mark
Sep 19 2011, 9:49 AM
linkon7: will market oblige
Sep 19 2011, 9:49 AM
linkon7: most likely yes
Sep 19 2011, 9:53 AM
linkon7: neither side is showing any aggression yet
Sep 19 2011, 9:54 AM
linkon7: now the BO traders on the long side are in doubt
Sep 19 2011, 9:58 AM
linkon7: expecting action above the 5061 mark now
linkon7: a rush to cover from bears... a rush to enter from bulls...
Sep 19 2011, 9:59 AM
linkon7: FR is getting narrow now...
Sep 19 2011, 10:00 AM
linkon7: on 2 min
Sep 19 2011, 10:00 AM
linkon7: ribbon says very strong down trend...
Sep 19 2011, 10:00 AM
linkon7: thats the thing wt 2 min tf
Sep 19 2011, 10:00 AM
linkon7: gaps
Sep 19 2011, 10:01 AM
linkon7: as of now..IB got violated on both sides
Sep 19 2011, 10:01 AM
linkon7: 4800 put now at 31...
Sep 19 2011, 10:02 AM
linkon7: LOD is 29.55 safe tgt will be 27.05
Sep 19 2011, 10:04 AM
linkon7: my 4900 straddle short - 5000 call long combo is showing BE now
Sep 19 2011, 10:06 AM
linkon7: placed sl for 5000 call at 110.05 and ride the 4900 straddle short... if 5032 is broken...
Sep 19 2011, 10:07 AM
linkon7: 5038 will see some sl hit
Sep 19 2011, 10:08 AM
linkon7: another 390 seconds... for 15 min stoch to give a buy
Sep 19 2011, 10:10 AM
linkon7: 251 seconds to go
Sep 19 2011, 10:12 AM
linkon7: 2 min suggesting a balanced market wt range between 5037 and 5059
Sep 19 2011, 10:13 AM
linkon7: zero conviction on either side....
Sep 19 2011, 10:14 AM
linkon7: God loves nifty... traders pray a lot
Sep 19 2011, 10:18 AM
linkon7: price is drifting east...
Sep 19 2011, 10:18 AM
linkon7: expecting up thrust above 5055 now
Sep 19 2011, 10:22 AM
linkon7: 5093 on the cards now
Sep 19 2011, 10:23 AM
linkon7: another 3 point on 4800 for it to meet its tgt
Sep 19 2011, 10:27 AM
linkon7: 15 min is a buy now
Sep 19 2011, 10:31 AM
linkon7: placed exit at 27.05 for 4800 put
Sep 19 2011, 10:32 AM
linkon7: balance will hold for 5093 as tgt
Sep 19 2011, 10:34 AM
linkon7: 15 min KS is now at 5094
Sep 19 2011, 10:35 AM
linkon7: CS resistance also near 5093
Sep 19 2011, 10:39 AM
linkon7: 30 point range whole day
Sep 19 2011, 10:39 AM
linkon7: next trigger will be europe open
Sep 19 2011, 10:39 AM
linkon7: got a sell on 2 min... most likely..signal will fail...
Sep 19 2011, 10:41 AM
linkon7: another 1.60 points for my first tgt on 4800 put short...
Sep 19 2011, 10:42 AM
linkon7: what a market... those who bot the break of 5059... are now caught
Sep 19 2011, 10:46 AM
linkon7: vix not falling much any more
Sep 19 2011, 10:54 AM
linkon7: 5050 round figure got taken
Sep 19 2011, 10:54 AM
linkon7: some sl went as bhog for maa ki charan
Sep 19 2011, 10:55 AM
linkon7: today is one of those days where its better to watch from sidelines
Sep 19 2011, 10:57 AM
linkon7: just checked sbi... 1920... down by 1.33%
Sep 19 2011, 11:02 AM
linkon7: bot SBI 25% intended capacity at 1916.... for tgt of 2100
Sep 19 2011, 11:03 AM
linkon7: sl at 1904...
Sep 19 2011, 11:05 AM
linkon7: vix at 29.93
Sep 19 2011, 11:13 AM
linkon7: so far nothing kind of day
Sep 19 2011, 11:17 AM
linkon7: only direction we moved is east
Sep 19 2011, 11:17 AM
linkon7: poor stoch is all confused now
Sep 19 2011, 11:18 AM
linkon7: 8th bar below the 20 mark
Sep 19 2011, 11:18 AM
linkon7: on 15 min tf
Sep 19 2011, 11:21 AM
linkon7: just 0.80 P more for tgt 1
Sep 19 2011, 11:21 AM
linkon7: on 4800 put short
Sep 19 2011, 11:22 AM
linkon7: 5042 is exit for my 5000 call on my combo
Sep 19 2011, 11:24 AM
linkon7: put writers are not very agressive today
Sep 19 2011, 11:24 AM
linkon7: 4800 put is in fact loosing OI
Sep 19 2011, 11:25 AM
linkon7: gives me a tingling worry sensation
Sep 19 2011, 11:26 AM
linkon7: it came close to 27.80 but not agression from sellers
Sep 19 2011, 11:27 AM
linkon7: we need to break HOD once or else price will be below the cloud now
Sep 19 2011, 11:28 AM
linkon7: lack of agression on the part of bulls... is a wign of weakness... and once europe opens..bears might punce
Sep 19 2011, 11:30 AM
linkon7: 5043 now projected range bottom on 2 min
Sep 19 2011, 11:31 AM
linkon7: bears showing agression now
Sep 19 2011, 11:31 AM
linkon7: bulls on defense
Sep 19 2011, 11:33 AM
linkon7: 5043.50 is the low so far on this down swing
Sep 19 2011, 11:33 AM
linkon7: intraday range hasnt increased on either side
Sep 19 2011, 11:34 AM
linkon7: again a dash to 5055
Sep 19 2011, 11:36 AM
linkon7: longed nf 5045
Sep 19 2011, 11:36 AM
linkon7: sl 5042
Sep 19 2011, 11:39 AM
linkon7: tgt 5057
Sep 19 2011, 11:42 AM
linkon7: its rotating with no conviction on either side
Sep 19 2011, 11:42 AM
linkon7: bulls want to buy the dips
Sep 19 2011, 11:42 AM
linkon7: bears want to short the top
Sep 19 2011, 11:45 AM
linkon7: 10 bars on 15 min tf and we did nothing...other than vix shooting up
Sep 19 2011, 11:45 AM
linkon7: we now have the cloud above us
Sep 19 2011, 11:48 AM
linkon7: dangerously close to y sl
Sep 19 2011, 11:50 AM
linkon7: gone
Sep 19 2011, 11:53 AM
linkon7: 5032 is critical... or now we shift to 4980 to 5030 range
Sep 19 2011, 12:00 PM
linkon7: cs broken
Sep 19 2011, 12:00 PM
linkon7: now will it be a fake out or range extension
Sep 19 2011, 12:01 PM
linkon7: either ways..there is a good trade in it
Sep 19 2011, 12:05 PM
linkon7: 5052 will be sl for many shorts now
Sep 19 2011, 12:08 PM
linkon7: RSI on 15 min is setting up for a classic trade now
Sep 19 2011, 12:17 PM
linkon7: bot 4900 put at 52...
Sep 19 2011, 12:17 PM
linkon7: 4800-4900 is now a pair
Sep 19 2011, 12:18 PM
linkon7: cost is 18 points
Sep 19 2011, 12:18 PM
Sikandar Mohideen: Linkon you rocking
Sep 19 2011, 12:18 PM
linkon7:
Sep 19 2011, 12:18 PM
linkon7: my trade log
Sep 19 2011, 12:19 PM
linkon7: jot down my views
Sep 19 2011, 12:19 PM
linkon7: nice to c u here
Sep 19 2011, 12:19 PM
Sikandar Mohideen: me too
Sep 19 2011, 12:20 PM
linkon7: now support can act as resistance
Sep 19 2011, 12:21 PM
linkon7: failure to break and stay above 5032 in the next 500 seconds will confirm this
Sep 19 2011, 12:23 PM
linkon7: SBI SL is still intact
Sep 19 2011, 12:25 PM
linkon7: 285 seconds to go
Sep 19 2011, 12:26 PM
linkon7: how r u doing other wise...
Sep 19 2011, 12:27 PM
linkon7: 165 seconds to go
Sep 19 2011, 12:28 PM
linkon7: 92 sec
Sep 19 2011, 12:30 PM
linkon7: bar is complete...
Sep 19 2011, 12:30 PM
linkon7: and we remain at 5031
Sep 19 2011, 12:30 PM
linkon7: either its a fake our...or a confirmed support turned resistance
Sep 19 2011, 12:31 PM
linkon7: placed sl at 34 for the 4800 put short... will ride 4900 put now... if it is taken out...
Sep 19 2011, 12:39 PM
linkon7: waiting for 2 min short signal now
Sep 19 2011, 12:39 PM
linkon7: wil come below 5038
Sep 19 2011, 12:41 PM
linkon7: 13 bars below 20 mark on stoch
Sep 19 2011, 12:41 PM
linkon7: on 15 in
Sep 19 2011, 12:46 PM
linkon7: strange kind of move
linkon7: both sides showing agression... but no cear winners...
Sep 19 2011, 12:48 PM
linkon7: still waiting for signal on 2 min
Sep 19 2011, 12:55 PM
linkon7: finally got signal
Sep 19 2011, 12:55 PM
linkon7: it was a fake out
Sep 19 2011, 12:56 PM
linkon7: didnt expect a V shaped recovery..but it did happen
Sep 19 2011, 1:01 PM
linkon7: Came close to IB high and stopped
Sep 19 2011, 1:03 PM
linkon7: main thing is rsi broke its pevious high
Sep 19 2011, 1:03 PM
linkon7: fact that its flattening out is not heart warming
Sep 19 2011, 1:05 PM
linkon7: NF on premium now
Sep 19 2011, 1:05 PM
linkon7: sign of short covering
Sep 19 2011, 1:06 PM
linkon7: expecting a run above the 5052 mark
Sep 19 2011, 1:12 PM
linkon7: 40 point range
Sep 19 2011, 1:12 PM
linkon7: and its killing everyone
Sep 19 2011, 1:14 PM
linkon7: appears to be another desperate attempt to break the 5032 mark
Sep 19 2011, 1:15 PM
linkon7: vix shoots up on its way down
Sep 19 2011, 1:16 PM
linkon7: nightmare for options writer
Sep 19 2011, 1:17 PM
linkon7: again at 5032 mark
Sep 19 2011, 1:28 PM
linkon7: AGAIN BREAK OF 5032
Sep 19 2011, 1:29 PM
linkon7: shifted all positions to short of 4900 put
Sep 19 2011, 1:30 PM
linkon7: intention of the bulls is clear
Sep 19 2011, 1:31 PM
linkon7: to buy below the 5030 mark
Sep 19 2011, 1:31 PM
linkon7: bear want to short above the 5050 mark
Sep 19 2011, 1:33 PM
linkon7: either side will give way
Sep 19 2011, 1:37 PM
linkon7: not one of the best days of trades for me
Sep 19 2011, 1:38 PM
linkon7: it sure was interesting
Sep 19 2011, 1:43 PM
linkon7: this phase has in the past produced a 40-60 points move
Sep 19 2011, 1:44 PM
linkon7: 4980 or 5093
Sep 19 2011, 1:44 PM
linkon7: which way r we headed
Sep 19 2011, 1:45 PM
linkon7: over 1.14 cr volume done
Sep 19 2011, 1:46 PM
linkon7: so despite its flatness... its an important day
Sep 19 2011, 1:51 PM
linkon7: vix above 30
Sep 19 2011, 1:52 PM
linkon7: good amount of indecission...
Sep 19 2011, 1:53 PM
linkon7: we now have a positive divergence on rsi
Sep 19 2011, 1:53 PM
linkon7: only thing standing between my profit is VIX
Sep 19 2011, 1:54 PM
linkon7: it needs to come down for 4900 put short to benefit
Sep 19 2011, 1:57 PM
linkon7: damn
Sep 19 2011, 1:57 PM
linkon7: bears are really7 agressive today
Sep 19 2011, 2:06 PM
linkon7: vix keeps shooting up
Sep 19 2011, 2:07 PM
linkon7: making me pay for my 4900 put short
Sep 19 2011, 2:20 PM
linkon7: this is getting unconfortable
Sep 19 2011, 2:20 PM
linkon7: price below cloud
Sep 19 2011, 2:20 PM
linkon7: price in a tight range
Sep 19 2011, 2:20 PM
linkon7: bars showing agression
Sep 19 2011, 2:22 PM
linkon7: intention of either side is not very clear... bears are not taking initiative below day's low
Sep 19 2011, 2:25 PM
Santosh D.Kaluskar: Hi.. LinkonJi,, I think 5017 is the point where Initiative sellers may Jump in Hard..
Sep 19 2011, 2:26 PM
linkon7: they had multiple chances
Sep 19 2011, 2:27 PM
linkon7: but everytime it seems they are buysing booking profit...
Sep 19 2011, 2:27 PM
linkon7: and waiting for higher lvl to initiate again
Sep 19 2011, 2:28 PM
linkon7: i think 4980 is where buls give up
Sep 19 2011, 2:29 PM
linkon7: fresh shorting can be seen below it
Sep 19 2011, 2:29 PM
linkon7: europe opened with deep cuts... and that was the first clue of their intention
Sep 19 2011, 2:45 PM
linkon7: we now have a double bottom at 22... and rsi divergence
Sep 19 2011, 2:45 PM
linkon7: woo
Sep 19 2011, 2:47 PM
linkon7: this kind of market is a day trader killer
Sep 19 2011, 2:49 PM
linkon7: the way it ran to 5045... it must have triggered a lot of sl
Sep 19 2011, 2:49 PM
linkon7: again no follow up
Sep 19 2011, 2:55 PM
linkon7: divergence on stoch on 15 min
Sep 19 2011, 2:56 PM
linkon7: unless we gap down for some reason tomorrow... my bias remains north...
Sep 19 2011, 3:07 PM
linkon7: we new have a new ref lvl 5022
Sep 19 2011, 3:07 PM
linkon7: and a support turned resistance at 5044
Sep 19 2011, 3:09 PM
linkon7: will carry the 4900 put short for tomorrow
Sep 19 2011, 3:12 PM
linkon7: damn... 22 poit range
Sep 19 2011, 3:12 PM
linkon7: and we shuttle between this 2 like ping pong ball
Sep 19 2011, 3:14 PM
linkon7: i am hoping for a close above or below the 5044 or 5022 mark
Sep 19 2011, 3:16 PM
linkon7: SBI didnt trigger sl... so thats a goood sign
Sep 19 2011, 3:17 PM
linkon7: 1905 or first 15 min low tomorrow..whicher is lower is the sl for tomorrow
Sep 19 2011, 3:22 PM
linkon7: exit paced for half qty at 45.05
Sep 19 2011, 3:22 PM
linkon7: exit mila to thik hai
Sep 19 2011, 3:22 PM
linkon7: balance will carry unhedged
[Delete]
Sep 19 2011, 3:23 PM
linkon7: gone
Sep 19 2011, 3:23 PM
linkon7: thats it for the day...

2011-09-18T23:41:00.001+05:30

Based on volume analysis SBI is a buy.... Others are not showing so much strength in their volume...

Bottom fishing...!

2011-09-18T21:31:00.001+05:30

Some stocks that look ripe for bottom fishing...!

UNITECH

Reason :
RSI making higher high
the down tendline is broken.
Stoch on a up cycle.
Plenty of buyers above the 29 mark as that is the top of the range for some time now.
Expecting upsurge above the 31.75 mark.

Stop loss is a eod close below the 26.10 mark.
Target : 31.75 and then 36...!

UNION BANK

Reason :
Rsi making higher high
Down trendline broken
DIvergence on stoch
Was trading is a range for some time, can be assumed as accumulation
Expecting upsurge above the 245 mark.

Stoploss :EOD close below the 226 mark
target : 283

BARTRONICS

Reason :
Inverted HNS on CS
Stoch on up cycle
Weekly value (TS) already above the monthly value (KS)

Buy only if we get a bar close above the 56.6 mark,
stoploss 54
Target :63

SBI

Reason :

Clean divergence on RSI
clean divergence on stoch
down trendline about to break
All the banks are showing buy signals so better be with the leader...!

stoploss : 1830
target 2279

expecting up thrust above the 1996 mark....

2011-09-16T17:00:00.000+05:30

The weekly chart is a heart breaker for the bulls. It clearly shows that we are bouncing from deeply over sold area 5362 is a multiple support-resistance zone and if we fail to break this lvl on a weekly closing basis... then pain will be visible on the charts once again.

From 6314 to 5362, a 161% range extension gave us a target of 4762 which we achieved.

Ideal scenario will be a test of 5362 region and then failure to overcome this supply zone will open the
next target of 261% ( 3786) ...!

2011-09-16T16:26:00.000+05:30

The markets closed with moderate gains today with auto being the best performer. The Sensex closed at 16937 (provisional), up 60 points from its previous close, and the Nifty closed at 5086 (provisional), up 11 points. The CNX Midcap index was up 0.05% and the BSE Smallcap index gained 0.02%. The market breadth was negative with advances at 620 against declines of 804 on the NSE.

Chart wise :
A very dangerous closing today.... below the 5093 mark and a drop in vix signifies that we are heading for some flat sessions now. Next 100 point range will most likely be between 5032 and 5136.

EOD picture looks bullish. Clear trend method suggest a beginning of a clear uptrend with 5071 as the key reference level. Till the time we make a EOD high below this mark, we have to assume an uptrend is in place.

ACCL band suggest a broader range of 5242 and 4710.

Woodies CCI is says cycle is in in wait mode but since CCI managed to breach the 100 mark in the 3rd bar, we need 2 more bars above the 0 mark for a clean uptrend where we look to buy the dips from now on.
Sidewinder is red, meaning NO TREND zone on eod. Chop Zone indicator is also in the wait and watch mode.
LSMA at 5020 means bias should now be on the up side.

Volume profile shows that it was a D shape balanced day. We managed to create a value area above last 4 days but closed the day below the value area low of 5098. 4995 and 4878 are the 2 virgin POC that normally acts are targets in the near future.

2011-09-16T15:05:00.001+05:30

RSI pattern played out well...

this is confirmed by ts-ks crossover... now need a bar close below the 5093 mark..for next tgt of 5030...! if we dont close below 5093..then we rotate again...!

2011-09-16T15:01:00.004+05:30

shorted 5122...! SL 5136..tgt : 5093...

2011-09-16T14:49:00.000+05:30

on a 3 min tf...waiting for rsi to make a crossover...
Stoploss is at 5136... waiting for crossover... and red - go ahead signal....!

2011-09-16T14:37:00.001+05:30

Interesting pattern developing on RSI.

5093 has become a double bottom while the second bottom is with higher downward momentum. This can be treated at a reverse divergence but failure to break the 56 mark and a reversal south means a clear support acting as resistance signal on RSI. Even though stoch is pointing to a up cycle, we know how fragile those signal can be.

TS is almost kissing KS signalling a shift to the south direction....!

waiting for
1. a bar close below 5093... and stoch to show down arrrow....!
2. price to hit 5130 mark and rsi failing to cross the dotted line....!

2011-09-15T17:23:00.002+05:30

We have a classic resistance turn support on ichi @ 5032

5029 (KS) is the EOD value area.
Stoch is above the 80 mark for 6 bars, which is a trend continuation pattern.

Tomorrow after the big RBI event, we will know for sure if this is a direction changer.

2011-09-15T17:14:00.001+05:30

The markets closed with significant gains in today's session after trading with deep losses in the morning. Positive opening of Europe provided triggers to the markets and the rally was mostly driven by interest rate sensitive sectors like realty, banking and auto. IT also closed with significant gains and oil & gas and consumer durables, too, provided support to the indices. Capital goods and FMCG were the only two sectors that closed negative. The Sensex closed at 16877, up 167 points from its previous close, and the Nifty shut shop at 5076, up 63 points. The CNX Midcap index closed with 1.1% gains while the BSE Smallcap index was up 0.3% in today's trade. The market breadth was positive with advances at 802 against declines of 624 on the NSE.

Buy is generated at 5003
Stoploss @ 5028 now

INR at 48... causes big jump on tech stocks...!

2011-09-14T21:35:00.000+05:30

INR touched 48 today and this triggered a big buying on the IT stocks fueling a big move up.

Chart just says a trading range between 5033 and 4908 and somehow we seem to be shuttling between this 2 very violently. This is getting tough for day traders with stop loss getting hit both ways.Then again, moves are not always linear and we have to live with it.

We again have a dramatic U turn and this time, it appears as if the upper part of the range will be challenged. Till we get some reaction on RBI policy, we an never know which way we are going to end this week.

If we take a different perspective of this by using PNF chart with box size of 10...

5030 is a 3 touch resistance...
4910 is a 4 touch support...

who will give way is a million dollar question.

2011-09-13T18:53:00.000+05:30

The 130 point fall from the top broke many bulls back today. Shorts on the system will be under pressure only if we trade above 5037 now. Till then bulls will have a tough time, Bulls managed to defend the 4900 level today but some might interpret it as a double bottom if we manage to open above the 4953 mark and trade above it for at least 15 minutes only then the Double bottom will come into the picture. Till then, all eyes will be on the 4908 mark and with everyone thinking of 4720, it might end up as a self fulfilling prophecy.

projected trading range is between 4926 and 5029 with strong selling above the 4954 mark.

An open below the 4926 mark might break the 4903 support. An open above the 4954 mark will force a few weak bears to book out and few bulls might latch on the double bottom on the chart and attempt a few longs. But overall trend is still very bearish with higher probability of 4900 giving way to a new panic bottom.

EOD picture points to a target between 4779 and 4730.

2011-09-12T20:12:00.000+05:30

We now have a reference level at 4928 for taking any valid longs. With every analyst expecting market to crash and break the critical 4720 mark, i have my doubts about how much market will oblige.